Arkansas made Hillary Clinton famous, but she could easily lose it in 2016.

by Claire Boston

illustration by Grace Molteni

More than 20 years after the Clinton family departed from Little Rock, Arkansas for the White House, the capital city still bears signs of their influence.

The lingering effects of a political dynasty becomes obvious the second you land at Little Rock’s Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport. The gleaming 10-year-old Clinton Presidential Center and Library, at 1200 President Clinton Avenue, brings historians and tourists to the city of 197,000. The University of Arkansas’ Clinton School of Public Service sits next door. The Hillary Rodham Clinton Children’s Library opened in 2013.

Hillary Clinton’s announcement on Sunday of her candidacy for president came not as a surprise, but as a “finally” to many Democratic voters. Now that her campaign is official, she enjoys a level of party support almost unheard of since the broad presidential primary and caucus system began in 1972: barring a terrible scandal or truly unexpected opposition, analysts say she’s all but guaranteed to land the Democratic nomination.

The general election, however, is a different matter entirely, which brings us back to Arkansas, where Clinton spent almost 19 years between 1974 and 1993. Although it’s not her home state, she lived there longer than she has in Washington, New York or even her birth state of Illinois.

Arkansas, like many of its Southern neighbors, has seen a strong rightward shift in recent years. University of Arkansas political science professor Janine Parry said that while Arkansas has long voted red in presidential elections, the state government’s rightward shift actually began in 2010 as anti-Obama sentiment grew among voters.

In the 2014 midterms, voters gave the state the Republican trifecta: two Republican senators and a Republican governor, adding to the already red House delegation. In 2013, control of the state legislature went to Republicans for the first time since the post-Civil War reconstruction era.

In 1992 and 1996, state politics looked different. Bill Clinton captured Arkansas’ six electoral votes by margins of more than 17 against George H.W. Bush  and 16 percent against Bob Dole, becoming the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win the state’s electoral votes. Since then, though, the state hasn’t gone for another Democratic candidate.

Historically, home states are supposed to be easy wins for candidates. Ronald Reagan trounced Walter Mondale in the 1984 election, but Mondale’s home state of Minnesota still accounted for 10 of his 13 electoral votes. Even so, winning Arkansas in the general election is unlikely to be the “gimme” it was for her husband.

“The evidence suggests that neither party should take the state for granted,” Parry said. “It would be an uphill climb for any Democratic candidate.”

Arkansas’ rightward shift is a fundamental demographic problem for Clinton, but the state’s populace presents even more challenges. Despite a rocky start in state politics—he lost his first election (for the House of Representatives)—Bill Clinton quickly enjoyed success on both the state and national stage. When he entered the 1992 presidential race, Arkansans were proud to claim him as their own: here was a true son, born and raised in the little Arkansas cities of Hope and Hot Springs and unashamed of delivering charismatic speeches in his southern Arkansas drawl. You can still buy “I miss Bill” shirts in most gift shops throughout the state.

The state’s response to Hillary, however, was never so enthusiastic. Sure, she was a popular enough First Lady of Arkansas and argued high-profile cases when she was the first woman to make partner at one of Little Rock’s most powerful law firms in 1979. She sat on numerous committees and charitable and corporate boards in the state in the 1980s and 1990s, successfully leading a statewide education reform campaign and pushing for Walmart to adopt greener standards in its stores. Yet Arkansans generally remain colder to her than to her husband. You can buy a Bill bobblehead at gift shops, but not a Hillary one.

Part of Clinton’s Arkansas image problem might lie in her presentation. She never had a Southern accent: growing up in the Chicago suburbs is far different from growing up in Hot Springs. She only ended up in Arkansas because she was mulling over Bill’s marriage proposal, anyway. When she did marry him in 1975, she retained her professional ambitions instead of becoming a full-time politician’s wife.  

By 1980, voters in Arkansas were so concerned over the fact that Clinton kept her maiden name that Bill Clinton’s advisers cited the Rodham surname among the reasons he lost his 1980 reelection bid for governor. She began adding Clinton to her name as something of a peace offering to voters when her husband announced he was running for governor again in 1982. He won that race.

But 1980 is far from 2015. Female empowerment and last names should be less controversial by now. Parry said Clinton’s popularity in Arkansas has been growing in recent years, but will probably never match that of her husband’s. Recent polling found 49 percent of Arkansans hold a favorable opinion of her, but 62 percent have a favorable opinion of her husband. Before the Democrats’ doomed 2014 midterm elections, her husband crisscrossed the state to speak, but Clinton didn’t join him. She instead focused her energy on New York, where she served as state senator from 2001-2009.

Perhaps a testament to her rising profile in Arkansas, Clinton can still draw a big crowd when she returns to the state for building dedications and other events. A summer book tour stop in Little Rock drew about 1,000 people, some of whom slept in their cars overnight to secure their places in line, according to local reports. In 2008, she trounced Obama 70-30 in the state’s Democratic primary and she should cruise to a similar victory in 2016.

When it comes to general elections, Arkansas hasn’t been much of a swing state since 2000, when it went to Bush by about five percentage points. Even in 2008, Obama managed to capture several right-leaning Southern states but focused almost no attention on Arkansas, which ultimately went to McCain by nearly 20 points. Given Arkansas’ current political climate and historically lukewarm reception toward Hillary, Clinton could be the next on the short list of presidential candidates — most of whom lost their elections — who failed to carry the states they have ties to. But given that Arkansas has only six votes to spare, losing the state could easily be more of a bruise to Clinton’s ego than a real game-changer.

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Claire Boston is a journalism and economics student at the University of Missouri. She’s covered politics and business for newspapers in Missouri and Arkansas. Find her on Twitter @claireeboston. 

Grace Molteni is a Midwest born and raised designer, illustrator, and self-proclaimed bibliophile, currently calling Chicago home. For more musings, work, or just to say hey check her out on Instagram or at her personal website.